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08/26/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Southeastern Conference has not only produced the national champion the last four years, but the league has also finished above .500 against the spread in non-league games every season as well. In addition, the SEC is a healthy 80-61 ATS in out-of-conference games over the last three years.
Wagering on the favorite inside league play has not been as effective, with a 63-80-4 record over that same time span. The prime culprits have been Vanderbilt (1-3), Auburn (3-8), LSU (4-12-2), Kentucky (2-5) and Georgia (5-12-1).
Time now to take a team-by-team look at the league with predicted SU overall and conference records for those wagering on over/unders for total victories.
EAST
6) VANDERBILT - The Commodores went 5-6 ATS last season with a 9-2 mark to the under. They are 21-5 ATS as road underdogs over the last six years.
Offense - The Commodores struggled last year, averaging 16.3 points per game and only 8.9 ppg in league play. The chances for improvement are slim and none, with the loss of four offensive line starters and nagging injuries to their top four running backs.
Defense - Last year's defense was on the field for more minutes than all but one of the 120 Football Bowl Subdivision squads. That eventually took its toll as the unit allowed 34.5 points per game over the final four contests after giving up just 18 ppg in the first eight. Expect that trend to continue in 2010.
Prediction - It will be another long and painful season in Nashville. (1-11, 0-8)
5) KENTUCKY - The Wildcats finished 6-6 ATS last year. They are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 conference home games, but 13-6 ATS in their last 19 on the road.
Offense - Kentucky had its highest rushing total (191 ypg) since 1993, but the club still finished 10th in league play in total offense. It will be difficult to sustain the solid ground attack this season with the departure of four offensive line starters.
Defense - The Wildcats improved one slot in total defense inside the SEC last year, moving up from 12th to next-to-last. The prospects of going even further up the ladder are small with the return of just four of their top 10 tacklers.
Prediction - Kentucky always seems to overachieve, so a fourth consecutive 6-6 ATS campaign is certainly not out of the question. (6-6, 2-6)
4) TENNESSEE - The Volunteers went 7-6 ATS last season. They are 5-2 ATS as road underdogs over the last two years.
Offense - Tennessee allowed just six sacks in eight conference games last year. Look for that number to possibly triple with the loss of all five starters. The Vols' scoring average will drop over a touchdown from last year's 29 ppg mark.
Defense - The defense loses its top four tacklers, including superstar safety Eric Berry. Furthermore, the line has been banged up in fall camp so another 10th-place league finish against the run is a distinct possibility.
Prediction - Lane Kiffin did a superb job last season but the Derek Dooley era will start very slowly - both SU and ATS. (6-6, 3-5)
3) GEORGIA - The Bulldogs went 5-7 ATS last season, but finished up 3-1 in their last four games. They are 2-8 ATS as home favorites over the last two years.
Offense - Georgia entered '09 without Matthew Stafford as well as its leading rusher and receiver, but the offense more than held its own tying Arkansas for the top spot in scoring inside the SEC. If redshirt freshman Andrew Murray can improve on Joe Cox's numbers, the Bulldogs will be a force on offense.
Defense - After allowing 25.9 ppg (the school's highest total since 1993), head coach Mark Richt made a drastic change moving to a 3-4 package. However, the problem last year was a porous secondary that gave up 25 passing touchdowns. Only two other FBS teams allowed more. With just five returning starters, the defense still has a ways to go.
Prediction - Georgia has lost seven games ATS each of the last two seasons. That will not be the case in 2010. (9-3, 5-3)
2) SOUTH CAROLINA - The Gamecocks went 7-5 ATS last year. They are 5-13 ATS in the final six games of the season over the last three years.
Offense - Every season it is the same old story with South Carolina: an ineffective offensive line (107 sacks allowed over the last three years) and a poor ground attack (110 ypg average since '07). This year could be the exception to the latter if true freshman running back Marcus Lattimore lives up to expectations. However, the line has continued to underperform in fall camp.
Defense - For as poor as the offense has been of late, the "D" has been the complete opposite, finishing 15th nationally last season in total defense. Ten of the top 13 tacklers return, so look for another solid showing.
Prediction - South Carolina teases its fans every year but 2010 could be different, especially in a weaker SEC East. (8-4, 5-3)
1) FLORIDA - The Gators went 6-6-1 ATS last year. They are an amazing 20-4 ATS in non-conference play over the last six years.
Offense - Losing Tim Tebow is a big blow but not as much as the departure of four of the top five receiving leaders. On the other hand, John Brantley should more than hold his own as the new signal-caller, particularly with a dominating offensive line and a solid stable of running backs.
Defense - Since Urban Meyer has come to Gainesville, the defense has ranked sixth nationally against the run. Even with the loss of four of the club's top five tacklers, look for the Gators to maintain their standing as one of the top defensive teams in the county.
Prediction - Florida is 10-5 to the under in its last 15 games. With a slightly weakened defense and an offense geared more towards passing, the overs should pick up in 2010. (10-2, 6-2)
WEST
6) OLE MISS - The Rebels went 6-5 ATS last year. They are 1-5 ATS as conference road favorites over the last five years.
Offense - The main question is how long will it take before Jeremiah Masoli is under center? Even if it is week one, don't expect him to breeze through the season with the lack of playmakers on the roster. In addition, the interior of the line is extremely inexperienced.
Defense - Last year's defense finished tied for fourth nationally in red zone efficiency and fifth in third-down percentage. Look for a drop-off in those two categories with the loss of five starters. Moreover, the unit loses its two top corners that helped the Rebels hold opposing league quarterbacks to a 47% completion percentage.
Prediction - This is a much weaker team than the one that has posted a 14-8 ATS mark over the last two years. (6-6, 2-6)
5) AUBURN - The Tigers went 6-6 ATS in '09. They are 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS in their final six regular season FBS games over the last two years.
Offense - Auburn's scoring improved from 110th nationally to 17th in just one season behind offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. The biggest turnaround came inside the red zone, as the offense converted on 95% of its opportunities as opposed to 57% the year before. This season could be more of the same if Cam Newton flourishes as the new signal-caller.
Defense - The Tigers allowed 133 second-half points from week seven through the bowl game. However, improvement is expected in the second year of the new system, especially with a much healthier secondary.
Prediction - Auburn went 8-3-1 to the over last season. Stick with that scenario once again. (8-4, 4-4)
4) MISSISSIPPI STATE - The Bulldogs finished 6-5 ATS last season. They are 0-7 ATS as home favorites over the last five years.
Offense - The loss of Anthony Dixon could stifle a running game that led the SEC with 228 ypg, On the other hand, the two quarterbacks - Chris Relf and Tyler Russell - should produce far better numbers than Tyson Lee did last season (1,444 passing yards with 14 interceptions). This offense has a chance to surprise if the new running backs can keep defenses honest.
Defense - This unit held its own last year allowing only two points more per game than the previous season despite the loss of five of its top six tacklers. The run defense was stout (146 ypg on 4.0 ypc), especially considering the Bulldogs played four of the top 13 rushing teams in the country. Look for much improved numbers across the board with the return of 16 of the top 19 tacklers.
Prediction - Mississippi State will finish with a winning ATS record in league play for the second straight season. (7-5, 4-4)
3) ARKANSAS - The Razorbacks went 7-5 ATS last year. The last time they finished below .500 in the eight regular season conference games was all the way back in 1999.
Offense - In games against Florida, Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, South Carolina and East Carolina, Ryan Mallett completed just 46% of his tosses with only five touchdowns, and the offense averaged 21 ppg. In the other seven games (versus weaker defenses), he hit on 65% with 25 touchdowns, and the club scored 49 ppg. This is a talented but slightly overrated offense.
Defense - Arkansas recovered 17 fumbles last year as opposed to only five the previous season. That was one reason why the Hogs were +15 in turnover differential. They were also last in the SEC in total defense.
Prediction - The Razorbacks will not match last year's 7-5 ATS record. (8-4, 5-3)
2) ALABAMA - The Crimson Tide went 9-4 ATS last season for a two-year 18-9 total. They are 6-1 ATS as road favorites over the last two campaigns.
Offense - Imagine how good last year's offense would have been if it did not finish 10th best in the league in red zone touchdown percentage. With eight starters back, including Heisman Trophy winning running back Mark Ingram, look for Alabama to reach the end zone on a more consistent basis in 2010.
Defense - Last year's unit ranked second nationally in scoring and total defense but that was with eight returning starters. This season, only two come back and the defense loses nine of its top 13 tacklers. This scenario is reminiscent of Florida's 2007 defense that returned just two starters and witnessed its scoring average almost double from the previous season.
Prediction - Alabama's ATS record will not come anywhere close to last season's 9-4 mark. (10-2, 6-2)
1) LSU - The Tigers were 5-7-1 ATS last season. They are 1-12-1 ATS in their last 14 conference home games.
Offense - LSU's strength was taken away last year as injuries to three different running backs curtailed the ground game. This year's offense will be a thousand times more productive with better health, especially if quarterback Jordan Jefferson improves his ability to read defenses.
Defense - A lot of new faces will patrol the defense after six of last year's top nine tacklers have departed. That unit was on the field for over 900 plays causing the Tigers to rank sixth in the league in total defense despite finishing third in yards allowed per play. The 2010 version has the potential to be number one in the conference by year's end.
Prediction - Take the 10-1 on the Tigers to win the SEC. They will also have a winning ATS record for the first time since '05. (11-1, 7-1)
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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